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Delphi Method

The Delphi method from Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey and T.J. Gordon is a method which can be employed to form a group communication process to deal with a composite problem. The Delphi Method is grounded on the Dialectical Inquiry concept: Thesis (setting up view or an opinion), Antithesis (conflicting view or opinion) and at last Synthesis (consensus or a new agreement). The synthesis thus turns into new thesis. It assists to build consensus regarding a specific composite topic. Without the requirement for the contributors to contact in person. A panel of specialists formulates a set of hypotheses regarding the future state of the topic in question. These are apportioned to the participants. Their unknown comments then get incorporated into modified hypotheses. The repetitive process goes on until consensus is attained on the hypotheses.

Usage of the Delphi Method

  •   Giving creative ideas.
  •   Deflecting Groupthink and the Spiral of Silence
  •   Predict a peculiar, single-dimension future issue.
  •   Consensus building.

Strengths of the Delphi Method

  •   Coverage of broad range of professionalism.
  •   Predicting a peculiar, single-dimension question.
  •   Participants can occupy anywhere in the world.
  •   Deflects Groupthink.
  •   Speedy consensus.

Limitations of the Delphi Method

  •    Cross influence is disregarded in the original form.
  •    Does not cope substantially with paradigm shifts.
  •    Triumph of the method relies on the quality of the participants.
  •    One should watch out for:

               Enforcing Monitor's own view or preconceptions.

               Disregarding and not sufficiently investigating disagreements.

               Underestimating the summoning nature of the Delphi Method.

 

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